The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have emerged as a crucial military force in Iraq since their formation in 2014, primarily to counter the rise of ISIS. While they initially played a vital role in defending Iraq, today, they pose a significant threat to the country’s internal stability and national sovereignty. Initially conceived as a temporary and popular force to combat terrorism, the PMF has gradually transformed into a powerful paramilitary entity with considerable political influence, particularly through factions aligned with Iran. This shift has raised serious concerns about Iraq’s future, with the PMF’s growing influence, its ties to regional and international actors, and the increasing weakness of the Iraqi state.
Although the PMF’s original mission was to fight ISIS, its expanding role now undermines Iraq’s sovereignty and jeopardizes its political stability. The Iraqi government, weakened by internal divisions and political infighting, appears either incapable or unwilling to assert full control over the PMF. Despite the official recognition of the PMF as part of Iraq’s security forces, it operates largely independently. The various factions within the PMF, each with its own political, sectarian, and ideological orientations, frequently act outside the central government’s authority. This reality raises critical questions about Iraq’s ability to govern itself effectively and safeguard its sovereignty.
The Danger of Integrating PMF into the Official Iraqi Military
The question of whether the Iraqi government should integrate the PMF into the official military has become a focal point of debate. Some argue that incorporating the PMF into the formal military structure would help eliminate its autonomy and bring it under tighter governmental control. However, this move is fraught with risks that could destabilize Iraq even further.
First and foremost, integrating the PMF would solidify its role as a permanent power within the Iraqi military, giving it more control over the country’s security landscape. Given that many factions of the PMF are closely tied to Iran, such a move could deepen Iraq’s dependence on Tehran, further entrenching Iranian influence in the country. Iran’s support for PMF factions, both in terms of military resources and political backing, has already significantly compromised Iraq’s sovereignty. Allowing these factions to become part of the formal military would effectively hand over control of Iraq’s defense to Iran-backed militias, making Iraq even more vulnerable to foreign influence.
Additionally, Iraq’s current political structure is too weak to manage such a powerful force. The government of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has repeatedly stated that it has no plans to disband or dissolve the PMF, yet internal divisions within the government continue to surface. The PMF has become a significant political force, with factions often pursuing their own agendas, sometimes even in direct opposition to the government. The situation reflects a deeper issue: the Iraqi government’s weakness, or at worst, its unwillingness to confront the growing power of the PMF. Whether by design or through inaction, the government is essentially enabling the PMF to function as an autonomous force within Iraq’s borders.
The Iran Factor: Undermining Iraqi Sovereignty
One of the most significant risks associated with the influence of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is the extensive Iranian influence over them. It is well known that Iran was the primary supporter in establishing the PMF, considering it a counterpart to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Since its inception, Iran has been the driving force behind the PMF, providing military training, financial support, and logistical assistance. This relationship has helped transform the PMF into an executive tool for advancing Iranian interests within Iraq, posing a direct threat to Iraq’s independence and sovereignty.
Integrating the PMF into the official military would further entrench Iran’s influence within Iraq. The Iranian-backed militias within the PMF would gain greater legitimacy and power within the Iraqi defense apparatus, effectively making Iraq’s military subservient to Iranian interests. The idea of Iraq’s sovereignty being compromised by Iran-backed forces is a serious concern for both Iraqi citizens and international actors, particularly the United States and its allies.
Iran’s involvement in the PMF is already a contentious issue in Iraq’s foreign relations. The U.S. has long been critical of Iran’s influence over Iraq and its militias. The increasing power of the PMF risks further complicating Iraq’s relations with the United States and other Western countries, who view Iran’s growing presence in Iraq as a destabilizing factor. If Iraq chooses to allow the PMF to become part of its official military, it would likely face increased international isolation, which would undermine its ability to attract foreign investment and support for rebuilding efforts.
Internal Weakness: A Government in Crisis
The internal divisions within Iraq’s political elite underscore the inherent weakness of the government. The PMF is not a monolithic entity; it is a coalition of militias with varying political, sectarian, and ideological interests. As these militias gain more influence within Iraq’s political system, the government becomes increasingly unable to maintain a unified stance. Some factions are pushing for the full integration of the PMF into the formal military, while others are advocating for disbanding or restructuring the force to make it more accountable to the government. These internal disagreements reflect deeper issues of governance, where Iraq’s political system is too fragmented to take decisive action.
The government’s inability—or unwillingness—to control the PMF is not merely a sign of weakness but an indication that some factions within the government are reluctant to confront the PMF’s growing power. The PMF is a political symbol in Iraq, representing the complex relationship between state sovereignty, sectarian politics, and external influences. With many government leaders reliant on the support of PMF factions, particularly those aligned with Iran, any move to disarm or dissolve the PMF could risk alienating powerful political and military groups.
A Recipe for Regional Instability
The presence of the PMF is not only a threat to Iraq’s stability but to regional security as well. Many of the PMF’s factions, particularly those with close ties to Iran, have been involved in activities outside of Iraq’s borders, including in Syria and Lebanon, where they have fought in support of Iranian interests. The PMF’s activities in these regions have contributed to the broader destabilization of the Middle East, as they function as Iranian proxies in a number of proxy conflicts.
If the Iraqi government allows the PMF to become part of the official military, the risks of these militias continuing to operate outside of Iraq’s borders increase. The PMF’s potential for becoming a permanent extension of Iran’s regional power would not only destabilize Iraq but also contribute to the broader geopolitical tensions in the region. This would also put Iraq in direct opposition to the interests of the U.S. and its allies, who see the PMF’s growing influence as a direct threat to their own regional security.
Conclusion: A Dangerous Path Forward
The question of whether to integrate the PMF into the Iraqi military is not just a matter of military strategy; it is a decision that will determine the future of Iraq’s sovereignty. Allowing the PMF to become part of the official armed forces would effectively hand over Iraq’s security to Iran-backed militias, deepening Iraq’s dependence on Tehran and complicating its relationships with the West. This move would not only undermine Iraq’s internal stability but would also have far-reaching consequences for regional security.
The Iraqi government is at a critical crossroads. Its inability to assert control over the PMF, combined with its internal divisions, raises serious questions about Iraq’s future. Whether through weakness or unwillingness to act, the government’s failure to rein in the PMF represents a grave threat to Iraq’s sovereignty and the stability of the region. The country faces a choice: either it takes decisive action to control the PMF, or it risks continuing down a path that leads to further fragmentation and foreign domination. The future of Iraq depends on how it navigates this perilous situation.