The Arab region is currently undergoing significant political transformations, with shifts that reflect a broader recalibration of both regional and international strategies. One of the most notable changes is the evolving relationship between Iran and its allies, particularly in the context of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq and other regional dynamics. Behind the scenes, Iran’s role in leveraging these alliances for its strategic interests is becoming increasingly clear—often at the expense of the security and future of its partners.
Iran has long wielded its influence in the region to pursue multiple goals, from advancing its nuclear ambitions to establishing a foothold in critical areas such as Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. However, recent developments suggest a shift that could have profound and lasting consequences for its allies. These changes are particularly evident in the cases of Hezbollah and the Assad regime, both of which were once central pillars of Iran’s regional strategy. The apparent decline in Iran’s support for these groups signals a shift in Tehran’s priorities, which might undermine its alliances and erode its influence in the region.
One of the most striking developments is Iran’s seemingly gradual abandonment of the Syrian regime, which had been one of its closest regional allies. While the full reasons behind this shift remain unclear, sources suggest that a covert deal, possibly involving a change in Iran’s regional strategy, could be emerging. This may be revealed in the near future, providing further clarity on the changing dynamics between Iran and its Syrian allies.
Beyond Syria, Iran’s relationship with the Iraqi factions that form part of the so-called “Axis of Resistance” is also under scrutiny. These factions, primarily represented by the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), were established to counter the influence of ISIS but have since become heavily aligned with Iranian interests. Key figures within the PMF, such as Nouri al-Maliki, former Prime Minister of Iraq, and Faleh al-Fayyad, the National Security Advisor, have been instrumental in the alignment of Iraqi militias with Iran. In the early stages of the Syrian conflict, these leaders called for the deployment of their militias to Syria, ostensibly to protect Shiite shrines and support the Assad regime. They were encouraged to send their forces to the Syrian-Iraqi border, confident in Iran’s backing.
However, these leaders were taken by surprise when Iran began to withdraw its forces from Syria, including key commanders from the Quds Force, the elite division of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This move, along with the redirection of military personnel to Iraq and Lebanon, left PMF leaders in a state of confusion and uncertainty. The Popular Mobilization Forces, once seen as a tool of Iran’s strategic interests, suddenly found themselves in a precarious position, unsure of where their future allegiance lay. Despite their deep reliance on Iran, these groups were ordered to stay at the Syrian border, unable to engage further in the conflict.
The leaders of the PMF, such as al-Maliki and al-Fayyad, had previously positioned themselves as key figures within Iran’s broader vision for the region. However, their situation has become more complicated as they face the reality of Iran’s shifting priorities. The withdrawal of Iranian support raises questions about the long-term viability of these militias and their political influence within Iraq. Additionally, it has led to increased domestic and regional scrutiny of Iran’s commitment to its allies. The PMF, long seen as part of the “Axis of Resistance,” could now find themselves at a crossroads, as their Iranian benefactor appears to be recalibrating its regional strategy.
This latest development serves as a stark reminder of the volatile nature of regional alliances. The leaders of the PMF, who once believed their loyalty to Iran would safeguard their interests, are now confronting the possibility that they are expendable in the face of Iran’s broader strategic goals. As Iran continues to focus on its own national interests, regardless of the consequences for its allies, it is likely that more partners in the region will find themselves similarly abandoned or sidelined. This includes not just the PMF, but other Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon, Syria, and beyond, who may soon face the same fate.
The shifting dynamics in the region signal not only the changing fortunes of Iran’s alliances but also a broader recalibration of Middle Eastern geopolitics. As Tehran continues to prioritize its nuclear ambitions and its desire for influence, it is becoming increasingly clear that its long-standing partnerships may be increasingly at risk. These developments suggest that regional stability may be in jeopardy, with lasting implications for both the Arab world and the broader international community. As Iran redefines its regional role, its alliances—and the fate of its key partners like the PMF—will play a central role in shaping the future of the Middle East.