The Arab world is currently in the midst of a series of profound political transformations, the scale of which is altering the contours of both regional and global strategies. Perhaps one of the most significant shifts is the evolving role of Iran and its allies, especially within the framework of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq and its other regional proxies. Behind the scenes, Iran’s strategic use of its alliances to secure its own interests is becoming increasingly transparent—often at the expense of the security and future of those very allies.
Iran has long wielded its influence across the Middle East to achieve a range of objectives, from advancing its nuclear aspirations to securing a foothold in key strategic areas like Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. However, recent developments indicate a shift in Iran’s approach—one that could have far-reaching and long-term consequences for its regional alliances. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the case of Hezbollah and the Assad regime in Syria, both long-standing pillars of Iran’s regional strategy. As Iranian support for these groups appears to be waning, a broader transformation is underway that could potentially weaken Tehran’s influence in the region.
The Waning Support for Syria
One of the most striking signs of this shift is Iran’s apparent pullback from its support for the Syrian regime. The Assad regime, a cornerstone of Iran’s strategy in the region, seems to be losing its Iranian patron’s backing. While the exact reasons for this shift remain unclear, some sources suggest that a covert deal, possibly involving a broader reorientation of Iran’s regional strategy, is currently being negotiated. If these reports are true, the details of this shift could soon come to light, shedding more light on the changing dynamics between Iran and its Syrian allies.
Iraqi Factions at a Crossroads
Turning to Iraq, the relationship between Iran and the various factions that make up the so-called “Axis of Resistance” raises critical questions about the future of Iran’s regional alliances. The PMF, initially established to combat ISIS, has become increasingly intertwined with Iran’s broader regional ambitions. Key figures within the PMF, such as former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, National Security Advisor Faleh al-Fayyad, and militia leader Hadi al-Ameri, have long been major proponents of Iraq’s alliance with Iran. During the early years of the Syrian conflict, these figures played a crucial role in deploying Iraqi militias to Syria to support the Assad regime, often under the guise of defending Shiite shrines. They relied heavily on Iran’s support, both politically and militarily.
However, these same leaders have recently found themselves caught off guard by Iran’s strategic shift. As Tehran began pulling back its forces from Syria, including commanders from the elite Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), it signaled a change in priorities. Iranian military personnel, once stationed in Syria, were redirected to Iraq and Lebanon, leaving the PMF leadership in a state of confusion. For the first time, many of these Iraqi factions—once viewed as an extension of Iranian power in the region—are left questioning their future in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Despite their heavy dependence on Iran, many PMF leaders have been ordered to remain stationed at Iraq’s borders without further involvement in the conflict. This move has created a new reality for Iraq’s militia groups, which must now confront the uncomfortable truth that Iran may no longer be as committed to their cause as it once was. The shifting tides of Iranian foreign policy raise significant questions about the long-term viability of the PMF’s political and military role in Iraq, and whether these groups can survive without Tehran’s support.
A Complex Reality for Iran’s Allies
For leaders like Maliki, Fayyad, and Ameri, this shift represents a far more complicated political landscape than they have faced in the past. They were once central figures in Iran’s vision for the region, but their role now appears to be diminishing. The reduction in Iranian backing for their militias has already led to greater scrutiny both within Iraq and in the broader region. The question of whether Iran’s support can be relied upon in the long run has become a critical issue for these leaders, and one that threatens to unravel the fragile alliances that Iran has carefully cultivated over the years.
As Iran recalibrates its strategy, the fate of its Iraqi allies—and by extension, the future of the PMF—now hangs in the balance. The shift in Tehran’s priorities has left its partners at a crossroads, where they must decide whether to continue their relationship with Iran or forge new paths in an increasingly uncertain Middle East.
The Broader Implications for the Region
This development is a stark reminder of the volatile and unpredictable nature of regional alliances. Those who once believed that their loyalty to Iran would guarantee their security are now realizing that they might be more vulnerable than they initially thought. As Iran focuses on achieving its own national objectives—especially its nuclear ambitions—its traditional allies may find themselves caught in the crossfire of shifting political priorities.
This shift will likely not be confined to Iraq alone. Iran’s proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and elsewhere may find themselves in a similar position, as Tehran refocuses its attention on securing its national interests, irrespective of the consequences for its regional partners.
The changes underway in Iran’s foreign policy also point to a larger geopolitical reordering in the Middle East. As Iran continues to pursue its nuclear aspirations and expand its regional influence, the long-term sustainability of its alliances is coming into question. For countries in the region and the wider international community, this shift signals potential instability that could have ripple effects far beyond the Middle East.
As Iran redefines its role in the region, its shifting alliances and the fate of its partners—especially the PMF—will play a central role in shaping the future of the Middle East. These developments underscore the uncertainty of regional power dynamics and highlight the broader implications for global stability in the years to come.
it is a shame on the Iraqi government for allowing itself to be exploited and for failing to protect its sovereignty and the interests of its people. Such developments only highlight the government’s vulnerability and lack of strategic independence.